Chain of Thought

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Chain of Thought (formerly Test Lab)
Strategic systems thinking for the AI era. Connecting what’s happening now in technology to what comes next in society and competitive markets.

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• Strategic market analysis - M&A predictions, consolidation trends, competitive dynamics

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Engineering leaders, developers, VCs, founders, and executives who need competitive intelligence and strategic context, not just news headlines. Recent subscribers include senior leaders at companies like Amazon, Gartner, Atlassian, and Microsoft as well as Gergely Orosz writer of The Pragmatic Engineer, the largest technology newsletter on Substack 👇

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About Conor Bronsdon

Former Marketing Leader at LinearB, current Developer Relations + Marketing Leader at Galileo AI, and host of the Chain of Thought podcast. I’ve built developer communities, including Dev Interrupted from zero to one, run political campaigns, and evaluated AI systems, giving me a cross-domain perspective on how technology markets evolve and their interactions with broader societal trends.

You can also follow me on LinkedIn where I share insights with 10,000+ followers, or on X/ Twitter.

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Conor Bronsdon - Predictions Scorecard

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

I often make specific, accountable predictions in my writing. This scorecard tracks both successes and failures to demonstrate analytical rigor and intellectual honesty.

Found a prediction of mine that isn’t listed here - whether correct or not? Let me know, and I’ll add it to the tracker.

Past Predictions (Validated) ✅

Technology & AI Predictions

Market Dynamics

• ✅ DX would become major competitive threat to LinearB

  • When predicted: Internal LinearB memo, 2023

  • Outcome: Validated by $1B Atlassian acquisition of DX, September 2025

  • Timeline: Called competitive threat 2 years before exit

AI Trends

• ✅ AI agents would transform political campaigns and voter outreach

  • Source: Medium article (January 8, 2020)

  • Outcome: AI agents in campaigns became mainstream 2024-2025

  • Timeline: 5 years early on trend identification

• ✅ Chatbots would enable micro-targeted political messaging (January 2020)

  • Outcome: Validated by 2024 campaign strategies

• ✅ Enterprise AI/ML adoption would accelerate through hybrid cloud

  • Source: Microsoft Services eBooks (2019-2020)

  • Outcome: Widespread enterprise adoption validated prediction

Political Forecasting

Georgia Electoral Predictions (2020)

• ✅ Democrats would win both Georgia’s 16 electoral votes and both US Senate seats

  • Source: Medium article (October 4, 2020) + threads here

  • Outcome: All predictions validated November 2020/January 2021 - Biden won Georgia, Ossoff and Warnock both won Senate seats

  • Key insight: Identified Gwinnett and Cobb counties as decisive factors months before election

  • Additional calls: Correctly predicted GA-7 and GA-6 congressional district flips

2020 Presidential Election

• ✅ Biden would defeat Trump

  • Source: Medium article (October 21, 2020)

  • Outcome: Biden won 306-232 electoral votes

Trump 2024 Candidacy

• ✅ Trump would run for President again in 2024

  • Source: Twitter/X post (January 25, 2021)

  • What I wrote: “If anyone had any doubt that Trump intends to run for President again, stop. He’s running again.”

  • When predicted: January 25, 2021 (nearly 4 years before 2024 election)

  • Outcome: Trump announced candidacy November 15, 2022; won 2024 election

  • Context: Made this call when many pundits doubted Trump would run after January 6, 2021

  • Value: Early identification of candidate intentions contrary to conventional wisdom

    • Miss: Failed at that time to predict Trump’s success + how little Jan 6th would end up impacting his viability (later became apparent)

Campaign Successes

• ✅ Pramila Jayapal would win Congressional seat (consulted on 2016 campaign)

  • Outcome: Won election to Congress

• ✅ Cyrus Habib would win Lieutenant Governor (consulted on campaign)

  • Outcome: Won election

• ✅ Abel Pacheco Seattle City Council appointment (served as Chief Strategist, 2020)

  • Outcome: Successfully appointed

Climate & Sustainability

• ✅ Mass timber would become viable alternative to steel/concrete

  • Source: My Urbanist article (February 2019) and Planetizen

  • Outcome: Timber Innovation Act passed December 2018; multiple mass timber projects built in Seattle by 2025

Clear Misses ❌

1. Terra/LUNA Cryptocurrency Collapse (May 2022)

• ❌ Predicted Terra/UST would become censorship-resistant backbone of Web3

  • Source: Blog post (May 2, 2022)

  • What I wrote: “Terra wants UST to be censorship-resistant money...This partnership [with Flux] helps minimize regulatory risk...very bullish for adoption”

  • What happened: Terra/LUNA collapsed catastrophically 5 days later (May 7-13, 2022)

    • UST lost $1 peg, dropped to $0.20

    • LUNA crashed from $80 to $0.00005 (I also lost $400k myself)

    • $50 billion in market cap wiped out

    • $400+ billion in broader crypto losses

    • Do Kwon arrested; Terra filed bankruptcy January 2024

  • Timeline: Published bullish analysis May 2; collapse began May 7

  • Lesson: Unsustainable yields (19.5% Anchor interest) are critical red flags. Algorithmic stablecoins without collateral are inherently fragile.

  • References: Wikipedia, CoinDesk timeline, Harvard analysis

2. Biden 2024 Re-election and Harris Succession (January 2021)

• ❌ Predicted Biden would run for and win second term in 2024, then step down for health reasons with Harris becoming President

  • Source: Twitter/X post (January 26, 2021)

  • What I wrote: “Joe Biden will run for (and win) a second term in 2024. Before the end of his second term he’ll step down for health reasons and VP Harris will become President.”

  • What happened:

    • Biden ran for re-election in 2024 ✓

    • Biden dropped out July 21, 2024 (before election, not after winning) ✗

    • Harris became Democratic nominee but lost to Trump ✗

    • Trump won 2024 election ✗

  • Timeline: Made prediction nearly 4 years early (January 2021 for 2024 election)

  • What I got right: Biden did run for second term; health/age concerns were real factor (dropped out of campaign, did not resign the presidency)

  • What I got wrong: Timing (dropped out pre-election, not post-inauguration), Harris managing to become president (did not reckon with her having to run, other factors that emerged)

  • Lesson: Multiple-step predictions compound error rates. Each dependent prediction multiplies risk of overall failure. Plus, never underestimate the egos of powerful politicians and their desires to hold onto power - which I both predicted (Biden would run again despite tacictly implying he would not/being too old to do so) and failed to predict (he would step aside from the presidency).

Active Predictions (Being Tracked) ⏳

M&A & Market Consolidation

• ⏳ Microsoft/GitHub will make counter-acquisition in developer productivity space

  • Timeline: 18 months from September 2025

  • Source: Substack DX analysis

• ⏳ 2-3 additional major acquisitions in developer productivity market

  • Timeline: 12-18 months from September 2025

  • Source: Substack DX analysis

• ⏳ AI acquisitions will heat up in 2026

  • Source: Tweet

AI Industry Evolution

• ⏳ 2025 will be “the year of AI and nuclear energy”

  • When predicted: Late 2024 on Chain of Thought podcast

  • Partial validation: Microsoft Three Mile Island deal; Oracle and Amazon nuclear investments announced

  • Status: On track as of Q3 2025

• ⏳ Enterprise GenAI tool usage for development will increase 10x by 2027

  • Source: Endorsing Gartner prediction in Chain of Thought podcast and newsletter

• ⏳ AI agents will become “tireless digital employees” across multiple functions

  • Source: Newsletter article (October 2024)

  • Scope: Software development, customer support, sales automation

  • Status: Early adoption visible across industries

• ⏳ Bot-created PRs will continue increasing from 15%+ baseline

  • When predicted: 2024

  • Current status: Trend continuing as predicted

• ⏳ Trust and evaluation intelligence will become core enterprise AI requirements

  • Timeline: “Agent Reliability” or variation as recognized market category within 36 months from 2024

  • Comparison: Similar to how Application Performance Monitoring became standard

Methodology

Inclusion Criteria:

• Specific predictions with clear timelines

• Public statements with documentation

• Excludes general commentary or analysis without predictive claims

Scoring:

• ✅ Validated - Outcome confirmed prediction

• ⚠️ Partial - Mixed results; some elements correct, others missed

• ❌ Incorrect - Prediction did not materialize as stated

• ⏳ Active - Still within prediction window

Update Frequency: Quarterly, or as major predictions resolve

This scorecard will be updated as active predictions resolve and new predictions are made. Last major update: September 30, 2025